Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Hahahahahaha, Ya Know, I, LOVE, Sam Collins, the old fart, you know that, I have his articles here all the time, but this just cracks me up, I mean, I swear, SWEAR, that it was just a couple of days ago that he was saying this was an inverted head and shoulders, and the SPY was going to new ALL TIME HIGHS!!!!!!!! Hahahahahaha, come on Sam, make your fricking mind up, geeze, your getting as wishy washy as ME::
Is the S&P 500 Forming a Dreaded Triple-Top?
The index is approaching record highs, with the two prior highs being the tops in 2000 and 2007. Get Sam Collins take on the markets.

Nice watch list at http://nyctrader.blogspot.com/.


I did a little spread sheet work on the DOW components, mostly to satisfy my own curiosity, as we are approaching the all time highs from 2007, I compared the earnings at the all time high quarter in 2007, just before the collapse, to the current earnings, just to see what's going on. I was surprised by a few items, and not so surprised by some of Da Udder ones.
The first column after the symbols is the 2007 earnings, followed by the current earnings for the last year, the number mark in the next column is for companies that have not reported yet, and those earnings are the estimated earnings, I'll fill it in later when the list is complete. The next column is the current earnings as a percent of the 2007 earnings, so like in AA's case, they made like 90% LESS than they made in 2007, and right under them AXP made like 30% MORE last year as compared to 2007, the next column is the current price as a percentage of the 2007 price, so AA is 75% LOWER than they were in 2007, while AXP is 1.56% HIGHER than they were in 2007, the rest are pretty self explanatory.
The DOW was trading at a WEIGHTED 129.36 P/E in 07', and currently is 101.26, down in the lower left corner, the actual earnings are 136.41 compared to 107.68 in 07', so the DOW is making 21% more than they did in 07', the AVERAGE P/E is almost exactly the same as 07', 15.64 compared to 15.40 back in 07'.
I can look at this a couple of ways, 15.64 seem's CHEAP to me, or at least FAIR VALUE, HOWEVER, we CRASHED off of a LOWER P/E in 07', hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!! Sooooooooooo............

Some of the individual stocks are interesting, like even though AA and BAC are WAY below where they were trading in 2007, they are EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE as compared to 2007, trading at 38 and 45 times 2012 earnings, and MUCH higher than what they were trading for in 2007, which was about 14 times in both cases.
In the two columns in the center I put a GREEN box around them if they made a LOT more last year than they did in 07', while the stock is trading LOWER than 07', like CSCO is the first green box as it's earning 38% more last year compared to 07', while trading 25% LOWER than 07'. The red boxes are, obviously, the opposite. Most of them are "fairly" close, although I was a little surprised by DD, it's making about the same as 07' but the stock is 33% higher and it's P/E is almost 40% higher, IE, "they" are paying up for it. One that DIDN'T surprise me, is that STINKING HD, god, what a piece of absolute JUNK!!!!!!!!! It's making 13% LESS than it did in 07', while the stock is up 285%, I mean, spit spit, geeze.............
Another one that didn't surprise me was TRV, it's making 7% LESS than 07' while the stock is up 48% from 07', and it's P/E is 38% HIGHER than 07', truly you are paying UP for it.
The Old Guard Tech stocks, CSCO, INTC, MSFT, HPQ, as a bunch are all trading LOWER than they were in 07', while they are making MORE than then, and their P/E's are MUCH LOWER than what we were paying for them back at that time. IBM is actually making more than DOUBLE what it made then, while the stock is only 93% higher, the current P/E though is not as dramatically lower as the other Techies.

I kind of thought that some of the staples were over blown from 07', but they actually are not, like JNJ, MCD, WMT, KO, PG, DIS, GE is making quite a bit less than 07' but it's about fairly valued. I also thought that T was more expensive than VZ, but it's not, it's P/E is 39% LOWER than it was in 07', while VZ's is 25% HIGHER than it was back then.

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