Wednesday, January 09, 2013

stock pick for 01/09/2013
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Wish you all great trading day!
Ivica Juracic


I'm not "doing" much, mostly, "waiting", for a better buying opportunity. The consensus seem's to agree that the first year of the Presidential cycle is the worst year, AND, it generally starts AFTER the Presidential Ball after the inauguration, we'll also have an idea about how earnings are going by then as well. Speaking of that, Alkie, AA, led us off last night and beat on revenue, which was a surprise, and matched the EPS guesstimates, it was mildly higher in the after hours, about 12 cents.
ANYWAY, the Perma Bull Tom Lee of JPM came out yesterday with some concerns about the market being "over bought", which he based on the number of stocks above their 200 DMA in the NYSE. That number is, HIGH, at 77.55% on Stock Charts.com, but I look at it in a context, more or less. Just because it's HIGH, doesn't mean the market can't continue to go higher, it can, and it DOES, just about the time I short it in fact, hahahahahahaha! Anyway, that chart is from BarCharts, and I believe it includes ALL stocks, and I used it because it goes back five years or more. The thing I look at is the same thing I look at with "indicators", that is, divergences. In 09' into 10' the market continued higher into April of 2010, BUTT, the $MMTH made a LOWER HIGH at that market high, as it was losing momentum, the same thing happened the next year as the market went higher into July of that year, but the $MMTH was dumping, which was a "warning" sign.
CURRENTLY, we have an unusual configuration on it, which is TYPICAL of course, as this whole market is, "UNUSUAL", the market went higher the entire year, in fact it was only one of eight times in it's History that it didn't trade lower than the open of the year, and yet the $MMTH has NOT been able to get above 70, it got to 90 in 2009 and 80 in 2010-11, this, COULD, be a divergence, but it's not making the new highs on FEWER stocks trading above their 200 DMA, just the same amount. I was going to blame this on the FED pumping all those tax dollars into Da Street with order's to hold the market up with a few MEGA caps, but I tend to think that we've made the new highs in the markets with ROTATION, where "THEY" run up a certain sector, take the markets higher with it, then move on to a different sector and run it up, while the prior sector just meanders along about where they were in the $MMTH, you get what I'm trying to say?? This of course, is, NEW, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out, in tear's with a market crash into the depths of hell, or one more big push that takes the $MMTH back to 90 where it truly will be "over bought".
One more thing, "Traditionally", a reading under 20 is a "Buying" opportunity, like it was in 2011, but of course, that was BEFORE the crash of 08', hahahahahahaha, as the "Over Sold" situation lasted during the entire 60% crash, or wad ever it was.



The $NYSI did what I thought it might, which was "Whip Saw" that sell signal it gave going into the start of the Year, as it's back on a new buy signal.
The, "market", is doing what you would expect as well, that is, acting like an absolute piece of unbelieveable SHIT!! I mean, it put on the BIGGEST bar of the entire year on the last day of 2012, then gapped up the HUGEST it's gapped up, like, almost EVER! So you would, EXPECT, some narrow range piece of shit bars on a shallow pull back as we "digest" that huge move, which is what we are getting. I, PREFER, that we get one BIG RED BAR DOWN, to about the $65 level, and "test" the top of that BIG BAR, before moving higher. If it goes higher from here with out doing that, well, it will probably do it without me as I tell it to KISS MY FRICKING ASS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Like I said, I'm not "doing" much, as I await a market resolution, but I have to admit I'm a little intrigued with DDR. It has an ascending triangle set up here at the high's, and could actually pull back a little under $15.50 and not violate it, it had broken over the highs above $15.80 but failed to hold on yesterday. If it can get back over those highs again, it has an "Equal Move" scenario that points to the $18 "area", and the nice part is that, OBVIOUSLY, it breaks the lower trend line on that triangle and I'M OUTTA THERE!

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