The Clueless Q Trader

2012-02-16T06:42:00.002-07:00

Stock pick for 02/16/2012

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Trade of the day for 02/15/2012

Entry chart

2012-02-16T00:39:00.001-07:00

THIS ALSO APPLIES IF YOU ARE TRYING TO SHORT THIS MARKET!

2012-02-15T06:14:00.001-07:00

Trade of the day for 02/14/2012

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I wondered what the big pump was yesterday going into the close, I thought the SPY had found the cure for cancer, but Larry Levine, http://tradingadvantage.com/, has no qualms stating what it was about. By the way, I, of course, completely agree with the jail time, although as I have stated any number of times, we need to send them all out for a date with the Iron maiden on prime time PBS before we can really clean Washington and Wall Street up:

On the heels of another MASSIVE European continent sovereign downgrade, plus the promise of UK & French downgrades, the market was saved again with a rumor. It wasn’t just any rumor though, but the same old nonsensical Greek bailout rumor that never seems to grow old. With only a few minutes left in the day, the usual rumor was released to the usual financial outlets, before the close, that resulted in the usual change from a down day to a positive close.

Isn’t it odd that the bad news like MASSIVE SOVEREIGN DOWNGRADES are always released when the market is closed; however, good news is always released during the trading day? If I wasn’t so jaded from so many obviously and bullishly rigged maneuvers by politicians and central banksters to achieve their preconceived outcomes, I’d say this was a freak occurrence. From experience, however, one must conclude that the timing of these things is completely controlled by the “powers that be” (read: Fed, Treasury, ECB, IMF, BOE, World Bank, BOJ, etc, etc). Any thoughts to the contrary show ones acute naiveté.

Of course there are others who share this frustration and not just in the USSA. Another voice of reason comes from Godfrey Bloom of the UK Independence Party who excoriates the EU with, among other things, “The day must surely come when politicians, bureaucrats, and central bankers must be called to account by a fiscal crimes tribunal and sent to prison for a VERY LONG TIME!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5NuHOXWlgM&feature=player_embedded

Sadly, there isn’t a single sorry politician (other than Ron Paul) or so-called financial journalist that will stand up and say the same. No sir, in the USSA it’s all about “Go along to get along.” After all, the slimy politicians need their palms greased and the so-called financial journalists need advertising dollars.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

2012-02-15T06:00:00.000-07:00

Why You Should Always Carry A Camera

2012-02-14T10:41:00.003-07:00

PROTECT THYSELF AT ALL TIMES!!! BUYER BEWARE!!! ETC ETC ETC!!!

Energy Conversion Files for Bankruptcy, Seeks Sale of Business

I would IMAGINE, the law suits are going to be flying EVERY WHERE with this one, I mean, a 750% rally in the thing, and it immediately files BK the NEXT DAY?????!!!
ALSO, there may be a few law suits thrown the way of outfits like this, who were touting the virtues of the company as late as, aaaaaaahhhhhh, FRIDAY!!!!!
Strong Growth in Solar Benefits LDK Solar and Energy Conversion Devices Marketwire

I'm just curious, but since the thing had a 750% rally, did the commodity guy on "FAST MONEY", "BUY HIGH, AND SELL HIGHER"????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Amazon to Create 850 Jobs with New Delaware Facility ; WOOOOOO HOOOOOOO, WAY TO GO AMAZON!!!!! THEY SPEND 90 MILLION FRICKING DOLLARS ON THE QUOTE, "FACILITY", AND THEY ARE GOING TO CREATE A WHOPPING, 850 LOW PAYING JOBS!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, THE, "BENEFITS", OF THE GREAT TECH REVOLUTION!!!!!!!!!

2012-02-14T08:08:00.002-07:00

Since I mentioned it, here's the "FLABBERGASTING" chart on BEEF, HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

I'm laughing, naturally, because those of you that have been with me through the years, know that we own a cattle ranch here in Beaver, SO WE FRICKING LOVE IT!!!!! We DIDN'T love it in the big red circle down at the bottom back in the 90's into the early 2000's, but we SURVIVED! Our cost basis NEVER changes, we have our OWN water, which feeds our OWN alfalfa field, and we haul the Moo Cows down to auction in Cedar City in our OWN trucks, TA DA, TAKE THAT AMERICA!! WE DON'T GIVE A SHIT, SUCK IT UP PEOPLE!!!!!!!!
Anyway, when looking at that chart, don't even, I mean, DON'T EVEN THINK, that the prior all time highs in 2008 helped lead to the crushing recession we had, OR, that the dump in prices into 2009 helped lead us OUT of that recession, in the green circle, no, don't even THINK about things like that, as the MSM definitely won't say any thing about it.

Ok, I've had enough fun, hahahaha, let's get real here, the REALITY of the situation is that this is a classic case of how we get BOOM'S and BUST'S in the commodity space, people like that idiot commodity trader on "FAST MONEY" just LOVE this shit, as they think prices will NEVER go DOWN, hahahahahahaha, IE, BUY HIGH AND SELL EVEN HIGHER!!!!!!!!
Yea, well, good luck with that one. The reason I brought up the shit prices in the 90's and early 2000's, is that NO ONE wanted to be in cattle, thus we now have the lowest number of Moo cows coming to market like, FOR EVER! But just as certainly as cow's piss on flat rocks, EVERY BODY AND THEIR BROTHER'S UNCLE ARE GOING TO WANT TO BE IN THE MOO COW BUSINESS NOW!!! This is so typical, remember back in 2008 when oil hit $147, remember all the people coming out of the wood work, yelling and screaming about, 200, 300, $500 a barrel oil???!!!! Yea, well THAT turned out great for them, didn't it! So to will this happen with Moo cows, the problem of course, is trying to figure out WHEN, hahahahahahha, the stoopid thing will probably go to Da Stinking moon before the eventual collapse, sigh!

Speaking of "FAST MONEY" (I was, WAN'T I???), they had a couple of discussions last night about the Insider selling going on, which of course, being on Bubblevision they had to try and spin it in a positive light, and I'm mentioning this now for a couple of reasons, as EWI just came out with a note about it, Guess who's NOT coming to Dinner , and it reminds me that you can get this information over at FINVIZ. Before I leave, I have to mention another thing in that EWI article, and I kind of thought about this at the time, is the Barron's "DOW 15,000" magazine cover, hahahahahahaha, I mean, in THEORY, stuff like that is what TOP's are made of, but I have to admit, 15,000 doesn't seem that far fetched to me, well, at least it's a lot more logical than that druggies call of 20K on the DOW this year.
ANYWAY, you can get a lot of Insider stat's at FINVIZ, just go to the screener, which shows this page, http://finviz.com/screener.ashx, and you see that it lists 6,858 stocks down below. Then you click on the "FUNDAMENTAL" button, then you go to the "SIGNAL" button at the top, and click on, SURPRISE, "RECENT INSIDER BUYING", hahahahahahaha, can you imagine that!!
You can also click on the "RECENT INSIDER SELLING" button, but, of course, we don't want to see THAT, RIGHT, hahahahahahahaha!! Anyway, it gives you a list of the top 100, so you can go through it as you please. Personally, I notice a LOT of buying in WEN, PCX, PKY, CELL, FSYS, BAC, and a lot in the Electric Utility and Regional Banks Industries. You can separate them into the Industries by, AFTER you get the Insider list, by going to the "ORDER" button and, SURPRISE, clicking on the "INDUSTRY" button.

2012-02-14T07:44:00.000-07:00

Ya Know, I'm a simple person, and as such, I have a pretty simple out look on the economy, and what drives consumer spending, and what causes recessions, etc etc etc, blah blah blah, and I boil it down to ONE thing, IT'S THE PRICE OF GASOLINE STUPID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I bring this up for a couple of reasons, one is Doug Short, who considers this SO important he has a weekly up date on it, http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/, the other is that ZERO Hedge was yelling about the retail numbers this morning, Third Month in a Row, which came in lower for the third month in a row, which hasn't happened since, TA DA, 2008, just before the FIRST LEG down of the great depression!!!
Here's the typical response of the MSM that is OWNED by those AHOLES on Wall Street:
US futures down as Greek bailout debate winds on

HAHAHAHAHAHA.............................HAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The S and P futures dropped TEN FRICKING POINTS DIRECTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE RETAIL NUMBERS, AND THOSE ASS HOLES HAVE THE UNMITIGATED GALL TO BLAME IT ON, TAAAAA DAAAAAAAAA, GREECE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm tellin Ya, WAD EVER, it just amazes me about the TOTAL lack of ANY MENTION of gasoline prices in the MAIN STREAM MEDIA, or MSM, BECAUSE THEY ARE FORBIDDEN TO DO SO BY THEIR GODS ON DA STREET!!
That chart up there is SO SIMPLE, it's disgusting, it's OBVIOUS, that as long as prices stay below the BIG RED LINE, about $2.50 a gallon, WE CAN HANDLE IT!! Once it gets over that though, SADIE BAR THE FRICKING DOOR!! And right now, we are starting the year with the HIGHEST GAS PRICES, EVER!!! Even higher than when they caused the first leg down of the great depression back in 2008, I mean, WE HAVE A STINKING DISASTER COMING!! If we keep this up, we are EASILY, going to see prices over $5 a gallon this summer....................
It just cracks me up, just look at the BIG RED CIRCLE last MAY, YOU REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THAT, we took off south in the markets until the flash crash in August, and the MSM did every thing they could to blame it on every thing, ACCEPT, THE PRICE OF GAS!! The DEBT TALKS, GREECE, EUROPE, ETC ETC ETC, BLAH BLAH BLAH, BUT NOT GAS, OH NO, GAS DOESN'T CAUSE ANY THING!!!
Hahahahahahahahhaha, sigh, wad ever, Ya Know, in case you haven't looked, BEEF is at practically ALL TIME HIGHS, and the people I listen to, say that consumers are going to be FLABBERGASTED at how much it's going to cost this spring!!!
But don't worry about it, it isn't going to matter, that is, as long as that country that has the GDP of Beaver County here, GREECE, DOESN'T DEFAULT, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

2012-02-14T06:43:00.000-07:00

Heeeeeeeey, how bout that, my old Buddy SYSIN showed up in the comments section, hahahahahaha, good ta see ya buddie, haven't see Ya in a while!!!! He's been posting his own stuff over on Face Book, which I read once in a while, when I have time. Anyway, he brought up an article over at ZERO Hedge, about the ZERO VOLUME, you can read it here, ZERO VOLUME, he brought it up because we are talking DECADE type low volume levels here folks, which I just happened to mention in my post of February 5th, I Talked About the Volume Here ..............................................
OK, so I DIDN'T say any thing about it, hahahahaha, but at least I drew a box around it, I WAS going to mention some thing, but I got side tracked and didn't say any thing, wad ever.
On the daily chart, at the bottom, we have a WEDGE growing inside of ANOTHER WEDGE, WOOOOO HOOOOOO, love those wedgies, in Elliott Wave terms this could be an ENDING Wedge, BUT, it has to be in the context of a Wave Five, and, personally, I have NO IDEA what the Wave count is, BUT, I have a couple of Elliott Waver's listed on the blog list on the right side, and you can go over to their site's and see what they have for a count for your selves!!!!!
The reason I'm kind of shrugging that off, the Wave's that is, is because IT DON'T STINKING MATTER, the point about WEDGIES is that you have to start breaking the lower trend lines, and until that happens, like Buzz Lightyear says, we could be going to INFINITY!!! A break of the first lower green trend line would be a, aaaaahhhhh, eeeeerrrrr, WARNING SHOT, then, a break of the second RED lower trend line would be a, aaaaaahhhhh, eeeeerrrrrrr, DEFINITE WARNING SHOT, and then a break of the THIRD red trend line, down at the bottom, would be a, aaaaaahhhhh, eeeeeeerrrrr, CONFIRMATION THAT YOU ARE A FRICKING IDIOT IF YOU AREN'T THE HELL OUT OF DODGE WAY BEFORE THAT POINT!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I actually put the weekly chart up there at the top just because of that lower trend line, just to show where it comes from, that's the neck line of a HUGE head and shoulders pattern that I was talking about waaaaaaaay back when, as a POSSIBILITY, and to be honest, we still haven't broken that POSSIBILITY, BUTT, we better start going down pretty soon, because if we break the May highs from last year, I'd say it completely negates the pattern. ALSO, and I'm no Elliott Wave "expert", BUTT, looking at that weekly chart, I could make a case that we had a 1-2 wave count off the October low, and we are currently in the massive Wave Three higher, which would lead to a Wave Four, which is usually a triangle, or consolidation period, before we break higher into the ending Wave Five.

2012-02-14T05:50:00.000-07:00

Stock pick for 02/14/2012

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Wish you all great trading day!!!
Ivica Juracich

2012-02-13T06:39:00.001-07:00

The futures have taken back the entire down day from Friday, almost to the gnat's ass, all supposedly based on the great benefits of the Greeks taking on another 171 billion in debt, sigh, wad ever, it looks to be trying to double top here, and of course we are right back in the same over bought and over loved situation prior to the down day on Friday.
I really have nothing to say, other than be careful and protect thy assssssssss at ALL times.

Markets Still Primed for a Pullback
The charts still suggest a bump in the charging market,
which could be a chance to purchase dividend stocks and undervalued techs. Get Sam Collins take.

My main market timer, www.long-short-timing.com, continues to be in cash, since December 27th actually, as they are working on some new systems after their first losing year, EVER, last year. He did send out a short note explaining his decision to stay in cash for now:
"We are still in cash. Why? The market has gone up on low volume, bullish sentiment is quite high, the amount of money in leveraged long funds is very high as well, insider selling hit an extreme last week, and commercial traders have short positions in the market. Other indicators built into our system continue to warn of high risk versus low rewards. If a correction ensues and it proves to be a cycle move versus a short call we will consider taking a long position. Our goal remains to preserve capital, and take reasonable risks.

As I reported in our last update, I chose to ignore a long signal on December 27th, due to the whipsaw action we had been getting, and the market pattern resembling a period in 1999 where a rapid change in direction was possible, throwing our risk indicators (potential for rapid loss of profits in a few trading sessions) into warning mode. At that time I recognized that a viable up move could play out, (and it has) but decided to focus on capital preservation."

2012-02-13T06:39:00.000-07:00

2012-02-11T11:20:00.002-07:00

Well, it was nice to see a pull back of some kind, ANY KIND, although it ended up being less than one percent, so the seemingly never ending count of LESS than one percent days continues, it's up over 30 some days now. I don't have the volume on that SPY chart, but we did get a very slight increase Friday, but certainly nothing to indicate any body was interested in selling, as the meager volume continues.

ANYWAY, that may be it for the, quote, "Pull Back", for right now, as the Greek tragedy played out on Saturday with the Government agreeing to the latest bail out by essentially kicking every one out of Government who didn't agree with the bail out, hahahahahahahaha, Greek's bearing gifts. The latest bail out, that they will NEVER be able to pay back, is for $171 Billion, and they are insuring that they will NEVER be able to pay it back by demanding severe austerity cuts, so it's like the guy that can't make his house payments renegotiating with the bank, and the bank lends him twice as much, and then cuts his wages in half, wad ever, the one austerity cut NOT be made is in Policemen, they have a bull market in jobs for that sector, as 4,000 demonstrators were met by 5-6,000 police. Bigger demonstrations are expected Sunday night, so who knows what happens Monday.

Regardless, the BULL MARKET in the $NYAD's continues, as they are still looking terrific, as you would expect they had a little pull back with the markets on Friday. The red lines are the ONLY thing that will get me interested in shorting this thing with gusto, or for more than five minutes at least. This would take some time to play out, but we have to get a PULL BACK, first, and by that I mean some thing more than 1%. I have NO IDEA how deep a pull back that we might get, nor do I give a damn, the ONLY thing I care about is the ensuing rally, we have many, MANY, gaps under us that are dying to be filled, the first being the 2/2 gap at $132.50, and with all the love in the markets I would imagine that would be about the MOST we could expect. What I would just LOVE to see then, would be the markets make NEW rally HIGHS, with the A/D's making a LOWER HIGH, I'm probably dreaming here, but that would be the shorting opportunity of a life time.

Bespoke had an interesting little note on their site, we are now into the second quarter in a row where the percentage of companies LOWERING forward guidance is out pacing those companies RAISING guidance, I can't post his chart as he'll probably sue my ass, but you can see it for yourself here, Earnings SUCK, it's the second one on the page.
It only goes back to 03', so what I did on the chart is to roughly show where guidance was increasing, in the green boxes, and where it was decreasing, like it is now, in the red boxes. There's nothing trade-able here, this is just informational, but the MAIN reason I bring it up, is to tie it in with the A/D chart at the top, the most interesting thing I see on this is the increasing NEGATIVE guidance we were getting heading into the ALL TIME HIGHS in the third quarter of 07', which was also the last time that we got a MAJOR NEGATIVE divergence in the A/D's, which gave the warning of a life time, that some thing was seriously WRONG!!
The MAJOR market high I'll be watching right now is the May highs from last year, which is $137.18 on the SPY. The current weekly chart of the A/D's has broken OVER those May highs, so they are "leading" us higher, which is good for the bulls. HOWEVER, we have a ways to go before the market reach's those highs, and any thing can happen to the A/D's between here and there, IF, the markets pull back, the A/D's will naturally weaken, and a new assault on those May highs may give the divergence needed in the A/D's for the short of a life time, or, we may just continue higher from here, which would just continue pushing the eventual collapse down the road.

The best stock market indicator, EVER???? There's an update at Dshort this week, John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.
Number one, I consider the $NYA200R to be a better indicator of OVER ALL market breath, which covers the entire NYSE, as the OEX is the play ground of Da Boyz, as because the OEX is all the Mega Cap's, and the indexes are OVER WEIGHTED by those Mega Caps, they use them to push the indexes higher, giving the illusion that the entire market is moving higher.
Number two, it gave zero, ZERO, warning of the coming Flash Crash in 2010, as it reached it's all time high of 96 immediately before the crash, at the red line on the left, at least it's the all time high on that chart.
Number three, as with ANY "indicator", divergences are what count, and it did do a good job of giving that warning prior to the crash last year, as it was making lower highs even as the markets continued to grind higher into the crash.
Number four is the red box on the right, hahahahahahaha, the stoopid markets always seem to throw some thing new at you, for if you look at every thing to the left of that box, you can't find a pattern that REMOTELY resembles the current one. "USUALLY", this thing gets spikes, as "they" pile in and pile out, in this case it's just doing the same boring grind higher as the "markets" are doing. BORING, of course, is usually not to good, as that "usually" precedes, TERRIFYING, hahahahahahahahaha!!!!

2012-02-10T12:31:00.002-07:00

I, THINK (that means I'm just guessing), that, IF (that means I don't know), this is just an A-B-C, CORRECTIVE, wave down, that we, MIGHT (again, that means I'm just guessing), get an "Equal Move" to the down side, which, AT THIS POINT IN TIME, is pointing to the 2/2 gap fill, AROUND, $132.50. This is also in the AREA of the 200 SMA on that 30 minute chart, which makes it a, LOGICAL, quote, "AREA", end quote.
That's about as definite as I get these days with this stoopid market.

HOWEVER, I do know, EXACTLY, where I would be a BUYER of AA, AGAIN, and that's the 12/30 gap fill at "about" $8.60, ALTHOUGH, the whole number of $8.50 sounds a LOT better to me.
Good luck with THAT one. On a "Trading" basis, the 50% Fibonacci number of the retracement from that 12/30 gap is at $9.70, so, I, MIGHT, look at it at that point, which is around the "area" where I GUARANTEED a ten percent return on it for this year, which we GOT!!!
IF, it goes back to that "area" again, the only thing I will guarantee THIS time, is that, yea, it's trading at $9.70, AGAIN, hahahahahahahahaha!!!

2012-02-10T06:04:00.003-07:00

Trade Setups for Friday 10th, February 2012

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Dear traders,

Good day. First I like that you all see those two charts. First are SPY weekly and you can see that SPY reached previous high resistance area. That is reason why will be risky to take new swing long trade. Of course individual chart can go with own way despite of index action but generally this resistance will increase risk for long side.

On the other side we can see daily chart. SPY look ready for another push up on lower CCI what will bring us in dangerous for CCI pull back and it can happen any time. This is another reason why will be long side higher risk for daily time frame. Because of that we can look for intraday patterns like BIDU 15 min consolidation or XEL weekly bull flag with 15 min triangle possibility for long side. On the other side I will follow JBHT and RAX for daily CCI reversal and NWSA for possible 15 min base break down and another selling wave. If anyone doesn’t see those ideas please let me know and I will give you additional explanation. Point is that I think that with that strong indecision I thing that is not smart to come out with trading plan because direction can changed anytime. Because of that I will send all updates over usual ways. Also I like to say that I will follow AMZN action again for short side.

Please note again; RISK is higher because chart reached bigger weekly resistance area and without signal it will stay risky because we can see reversal, but we can see continuation or range action too.

Wish you all good trading day

Ivica

Hi, this is Cucca, just following up on what Ivica said above, on the 60 minute chart of the SPY above, the, quote, "INDICATORS", are all DIVERGING against the rising price action since about February 3rd, IE, they have been making LOWER highs while the SPY has continued to make HIGHER highs, both of the STOCH's have just been going side ways in extreme over bought condition. I would caution that this situation can continue, as we correct through TIME, rather than price, IE, we just grind side ways, working off the over bought situation, rather than having a "PULL BACK" to get the job done.
ALSO, the daily chart is in extreme over bought conditions, BUTT (the BIG BUTT), there are NO divergences, we would have to have a pull back, and then go back up and make NEW highs, while the indicators make LOWER highs, that kind of situation, should we be lucky enough to get it, would be a SELL THE WORLD SIGNAL, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Wad ever, we are having our first significant pull back today, with the DOW futures down about 90 points, it will be interesting to see if, "THEY", use this pull back as a BUYING opportunity again, after the open! "THEY", have been training, "US", to buy these gap downs, and my suspicions have been that they will do this until they think they can get enough suckers to buy one of these gap downs, and then after the open of one of these gap downs, rather than do the typical melt up after the "real" open, they take it to them after the open by CONTINUING to go lower, which, of course, would cause a panic, and result in all those late buyers all trying to get out the single fire door at the same time!!!!
Wad ever, have fun out there in La La Land.

ALSO, I would point out that yesterday, AGAIN, even though the major indexes finished HIGHER, accept for the NYSE, DECLINING ISSUES out numbered ADVANCING ISSUES, WHICH, is probably not a very, aaaaaaahhhhhhh, eeeeerrrrrrrr, HEALTHY, situation!!!

Wad ever, go for it, for as BUBBLEVISION yells and screams every day, that, BECAUSE, the "markets have gone up 35 straight days without so much as a 1% pull back, they will therefore, CONTINUE, to go higher FOREVER, WITHOUT SO MUCH AS A 1% PULL BACK, AND IF YOU DON'T GET IN RIGHT NOW, YOU WILL NEVER, NEVER I TELL YA, GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO BUY THIS MARKET AT LOWER PRICES!!!

Nasdaq Is Practically Shouting, ‘Overbought!'
The index's relative strength indicator is flashing a bright warning. Get Sam Collins take on the markets
.Hedge Against Rising Rates With TMV
If rates rise, bond prices should fall and TMV should rise. Get my target.

2012-02-08T07:01:00.002-07:00

Hi, how are Ya! Good ta see Ya! Ivica has NO ideas, udder dan day trading stocks that are moving off of news or earnings, wad ever, we continue to grind higher, with no end in sight, as I guess we are in a new GENERATIONAL bull market, hahahahaha! People are getting a little desperate, well, people who may be fighting this thing, one my favorites, Sam Collins, kind of cracked me up:

Confirmation of a New Bull Market
Pullbacks of 3% or more should be used as fresh buying opportunities.

Number one, we haven't had a ONE PERCENT pull back in like two months, much less THREE PERCENT, hahahahaha, Larry Levine keeps screaming about the unreal LOW volume and lack of tradable moves intraday, as it's killing Day traders, on and on, etc etc, all very typical stuff as "THE MARKETS" frustrate as many people as they can. This will pass, as always, but it ain't gonna happen YET, BUTT, we can look forward to it if we keep getting some little, aaaaaahhhhhhh, CRACKS, in the Bullish case, case in point was yesterday, as we had an UP day, but the internals didn't confirm it, as shown on the little table where decliners actually out numbered the advancers, Ya know, little stuff like that. We won't get a decent move until we get some thing like the RED box on the chart, where we made new highs but the stocks above their 50 DMA actually went DOWN on the new highs, BUTT, we have to get a decent little pull back, FIRST, and then go back up and make new HIGHS, before we can get a situation like that, so we are a ways off.
Another little interesting CRACK was a flash point on Bubblevision, where they went by it as fast as they could so they didn't have to talk about it, but this is a pretty lousy earnings season, as we are having the LOWEST percentage of earnings beating "ESTIMATES" since the fourth quarter of 2008, don't get me wrong, the earnings are GOOD, but we are getting a LOWER percentage of beats, and the meeces are about double the last earnings season, just some thing to keep an eye on.
I've moved out of my stock positions, and moved into a "stock replacement" type thing, where I sell out and then buy OTM options further out, just to limit my exposure, but also to keep me in the game, plus I can sell near term or weekly options against those positions, like in AA, I brought the March 11 calls, and then I day trade against it by selling the weekly 11 calls, or even the 10 calls if I see a decent setup.
Anyway, good luck to you out there in La La Land.

2012-02-08T00:58:00.001-07:00

"NEVER SELL YOUR SADDLE, BECAUSE LIFE IS A LONG HARD RIDE"................UNKNOWN

Every Cowboy You Ever Knew

If you grew up watching westerns as a kid, as I did, this will bring

back some memorable names and faces, especially at

the end where they show the 'bit' players.

One look at this film clip and you'll

be young and old all over again. It is "brand new" even listing 2012.

BUT WAIT -- THERE'S MORE!!!! Ever wonder just who all those minor characters were who populated western after western with few lines and a familiar face.

Well, the clip has pictures and names -- so after 50 or so years -- say "Howdy" to some of those general store, saloon keeper, blacksmith mini-heroes from your youth.

Just click on Those Old Westerns and enjoy --

CLICK: Those Old Westerns

2012-02-05T09:48:00.003-07:00

HHHHMMMMM, it's interesting, Stock BEE, http://stockbee.blogspot.com/, just posted a "RISK" post, hahahahahaha, talk about your timing for a subject about that, it's kind of funny, because Friday his post had the word "BULLISH" in the head line, I guess after doing his weekend work he decided we are a little, aaaaaahhhhhhhhh, FROTHY, as he says, and we should be controlling our, RISK, right here, wad ever, I'm just starting to eat, and haven't walked yet, back in a while. He's starting to think we get a SHAKE OUT type of pull back here, as Da Boyz on Da Street try and scare the shit out of the Johnny come lately retails that have started to join the "Par-TEY", hahahaha, I sure hope so, a little 50% "pull back" here should be just about RIGHT!

I've been meaning to post this, and since I have a couple of minutes between my cooking, cleaning, feeding the stray cats, etc etc, I thought I would. Some one mentioned the other day about how RIGHT Investor's who had their heads in the "CLOUDS" were, as FFIV posted some thing like their 11th quarter in a row of earnings beats, which really stoked me out MAAAAANNNNN, so I checked them out. One of my MANY weakness's is that I get a wild hair up my ass about some thing, in this case the "CLOUD",and I just assumed that because those POS's like VMW, RHT and CRM had P/E's in the hundreds (CRM actually has a current P/E of 6............ THOUSAND, hahahahahahaha!!!), the whole "SECTOR" sucked, but this outfit actually has REAL earnings, and I was surprised to find out a couple of it's contemporaries do as well, like CTXS and CTSH. So I was kind of scanning through the bunch, and I had on a WEEKLY chart, for some reason, and they all looked almost EXACTLY alike, and I was looking at them, like RHT, CTXS and CTSH plus this one, and I thought.......................
It's the Justine Mamis Sentiment cycle chart! Now, I'm probably WRONG (I usually AM!), but I'd say that red box up there looks TOTALLY different than the green box, AND, I might be so bold to GUESS that it currently looks like the "Returning Confidence" part of the cycle, BUTT, again, I'm usually WRONG, so................... I'll leave it up to your own judgement.
Now, I, COULD, make the case that this thing has an INVERTED Head and Shoulders on it, and it, COULD, be saying it's going to $200, yep, I, COULD, say that, as in WOULDA SHOULDA COULDA!
Wad ever, I find find this thing pretty interwesting, they kind of got lost in the earnings rush as they reported the same night that GOOG meeced BIG time, along with MSFT and IBM reporting, they BEAT, AGAIN, BUTT, IBD sounded a little, aaaaahhhhhhhhh, cautionary, as earnings are actually DE-celerating, DECEL, Inwestor's got so scared they only sent it higher by 11% the next day, hahahahahahahahaha!!

Here's another reason I really like this thing, it obeys some cool support and resistance stuff, as it found a wonderful bottom last year RIGHT on the high it made a few months after it started trading, around $70, AND, this chart clearly shows what a bunch of AHOLES Wall Street is, as they VERY obviously did every thing they could to suck in some poor unsuspecting SHORT'S with the very clear Head and Shoulders formation at the 09' lows, fricking ROACH'S!!!

I have NO opinion about this, I'm just making an OBSERVATION here, but Alkie looks terrible here, ESPECIALLY, when you consider this is three years into the, quote, "RECOVERY". BUTT (that's the BIG BUTT, as always), the green circle in the top chart is Alkie three years into the prior, quote, "RECOVERY". You know, well, ya know, well, I don't know what to say, I'm just saying, well, I don't know what I'm saying, some thing I guess.

2012-02-05T09:18:00.000-07:00

Hey, hi, how are Ya, how Ya doin, good to see Ya, it's Cucca, yeeeaaaaaa, I'm still here, for better or worse, mostly worse, hahahahahaha!

Hey, look, I'm not posting much (OBVIOUSLY!!), because there's nothing to say (OBVIOUSLY), the markets have melted up since the start of the year, and LOVE it or HATE it, THAT'S WHAT IT'S DOING!! I, PERSONALLY, of course, HATE IT, which is one of the reasons I'm not posting, because all I'd say is, SHORT THE SHIT OUT OF THIS PIG, which is WRONG, so therefore, I don't say any thing.

ACTUALLY, they've melted up since 12/20, I don't remember what the difference between 12/19 and 12/20 was, was that the day the European Central Banks all announced they were going to loan more money, and put those insolvent PIIG countries DEEPER in DEBT????? Wad ever, I don't remember, and to be honest I really don't give a big flying what ever, the point is....................... well, actually, I don't even remember what the point is and why I'm posting this, hahahahahahahaha!!!!

Ok, look, actually, one thing is I'm pissed off I didn't say some thing about this when it happened, I SAW IT, but I didn't say any thing about it. Number one, I'm INVOLVED with the market, IE, I'M IN, so it didn't matter to me, PLUS, I've mentioned this a thousand times in the past, so why bother, but the green box on the price part of the chart above is the "Three day pull back", quote, "SYSTEM", the parameters are, AGAIN, the instrument HAS to be above the 200 DMA, you get a three to five day pull back (use your own judgement), the RSI 2 get's over sold, you BUY, with NO STOP! You have an EXIT, but it's a time exit, the one I go by is you exit when we close higher than the previous two days, but you can screw around with it your self, like, three days, five days, wad ever, obviously, by leaving with the two day exit, I meeced the big pump on Friday, hahahahahahaha, but I'm kind of in a "hold" situation right now, so I didn't care, I'm counter trading during the day against the "positions", to help control my risk. I will mention that one thing I DIDN'T like about it, was you like to see the RSI 2 get UNDER 10, which it didn't, but in strong markets it may not do that.

Speaking of counter trading, other than a few exceptions we've been very consistent, we get a gap up and we trade down most of the rest of the day, we open flat or gap down and we trade higher most of the rest of the day, I'd show some charts but I don't feel like making the effort, look for your self, and, GENERALLY, the bigger the gap up or gap down the BIGGER the move in DA udder direction, one of the "GENERALIES" being Friday, as we gapped up huge and went UP, although not much. Speaking of, "not much", GENERALLY, and Larry Levine has been bitching about this for a couple of months now, other than at the open or going into the close, the "moves" have been just about ZERO, and trying to force some thing during the majority of the day has been a real sucker's game, IE, trade the first and last hour and shut the thing down the rest of the time, walk away, or better, TAKE a walk, sleep, what ever, just LEAVE!

Ok, what I really wanted to talk about was my favorite subject, RISK, read Ivica's comments in the lower post, he actually had a couple of days last week when he had no ideas, he's concerned with the "RISK" involved with new positions right now. When I say "concerned", it's not that he's not taking new positions, he controls his "risk" by doing what we all do, he just reduces his position size, which is what we all do, RIGHT!!?? Ok, maybe not, wad ever, Ya gotta do wad Ya gotta do...........

Sigh, there's about a half hour between this and the last sentence above, I've been trying to decide if I'm going to go into a long drawn out rant and rave over what I mean by "RISK", and I've decided to do it, but I'm tired (I'm not sleeping very well these days), it's time to eat, walk around, and come back to it, I'll finish this a little later.

2012-02-05T08:58:00.000-07:00

Stock pick for 02/06/2012

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Dear traders,
I like to write few words about market situation. I like to note that this is just technical view and I won’t talk about econo0mic or world indecision etc. Please take a look at these three weekly indices charts. First what we can see is that all are already on the move and those who follow me know that for trading plan I will use pattern (consolidation, rest) that will give me possibility for acceptable risk/reward trade. First conclusion is that we must wait for patterns because those charts look like running train and it is dangerous to jump in when they are in full speed. But, ok, there are many charts out here and very possible we will find some consolidations for individual action. That is correct and trading ideas will prove that. Point is that I will like to explain risk. We can see that DIA is at previous high resistance area, SPY has some room for more upside action but we can see that SPY is already in resistance area. Resistance is not exactly price, it is area, and SPY reached that area on the chart. Maybe there will be some more upside, maybe not, maybe it will explode without rest, no one can know that. But we can recognize risk and that is what is very important for us. The QQQ also can stop here (big resistance is $65 area) and $62.50 will be also good resistance area. Point is that charts are at resistance areas and they are strong. Pace is good and volume is good. At this moment I don’t see reason to short those charts; also I don’t see reason to take long trade. From risk view it will be best to sit and wait. But those are weekly charts and we could wait several weeks and I’m not sure that most traders have that patience. I hope that conclusion about high risk will make sense to all. We have two options: one is to stay in cash and wait and another is to look for individual weak and strong charts in hope that we will see “own way” chart. But point is that we can’t use full risk, and that is personal decision and I just like to remind folks of that. My focus will be same, but again it will be with maximum 50% usual risk, and in the live trading room I will be more focused on intraday setups because I think that right now intraday setups (5/15min) will give us smaller and better risk. It is very hard to email those ideas on time so please if you will take any swing possibilities don’t take too much risk. I was trying on Friday with SPPI intraday setup what could turn in to swing trade and that is what I will try to find in the future. But I like to NOTE again that it is important to use proper risk here. Stop will be smaller but setup will be more aggressive then setup based on daily or weekly charts. I really hope that my explanations are clear, and if that is not true, and if anyone feel that something isn’t clear, please feel free to contact me and I will be happy to give additional explanations.
Wish you all great trading week
Kind regards
Ivica

Hey there, Hi, this is me, Cucca, hey, how Ya Doin!!!! Hahahahahaha, I'm laughing, because I just got an invitation to a, quote, "Seminar", on Monday, with a, quote, "famous trader", from DTI, what cracked me up was that I'd forgotten all about the guy, hahahahahahaha! It's funny about how people I used to quote all the time have disappeared off my radar screen, and how the markets BLOW UP, and suddenly they start their shyster shit all over again, hahahahahaha, it's going to get MUCH worse, the more the markets go up that is!
ANYWAY, the guy is Price Headley, I added his link to the links on the left, Big Trends.com, the reason I'm laughing is because it makes me realize I have a memory like an Elephant, that is, it takes me a LOOOOOOONG time to forget them, and when I do it's like they don't exist any more, hahahahahaha!
Ok, the "REST" of the story goes back a LONG time, you people that have been with me a long time know that at one time in my life, I was a member of EVERY STOCK AND TRADING SERVICE THAT EVER EXISTED, true fact, I spent a TON of money on my, quote, EDUCATION! And what I learned, was, I CAN LOSE MY OWN FUCKING MONEY!!! NO SHIT GOMER, I CAN DO THAT!!! I DON'T NEED SOME BODY ELSE TO DO THAT FOR ME!!
Ok, so the story is, I joined Price's "QQQ" service waaaaaaaaaaaaaay back, when he was appearing on ALL the network shows, he sent you option trades on the Q's, ok, got that, ok, so, I joined for a year, and he never had one winning trade, let me repeat that, HE HAD NO WINNING TRADE ON THE Q'S FOR AN ENTIRE YEAR!!
Now, of course, you very astute individuals will probably note that this was probably the single best, quote, "SERVICE", EVER, because if you faded him, YOU HAD 100% WINNERS, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH.................................HAH!!!!!!!!
I'm still laughing, hahahaha, wad ever, I put his link over there just to, well, check him out again once in a while. To be fair, I probably just got him in a bad year, he's probably had 100% winner's every year since then...............................
By the way, the only OTHER service I joined for a year, that never had a single winning trade, was Bernie Schaeffer's service, I forget which one it was, the bad part about him as compared to Price was that all of Bernie's trades were with deep ITM options, so when you lost with him, YOU REALLY LOST!!
Ok, I gotta be fair, another one that never had a winning trade was Marty Chenard, but that was only because he never made a trade all year, hahahahahaha, HELL, I PROBABLY SAVED A TON OF MONEY THAT YEAR!!!!!!!!
If I were to ever go back to a pay site, which I've proven to myself over the years to be a waste of time and money, for ME that is, as I'm to bull headed and I usually DON'T do what they say to do, so why bother, I would recommend Xpert Stock Trader (Ivica), Pristine, DTI, Toni Hansen, Trading Markets (I can't vouch for them right now as I don't know what's involved, but when I spent a year with them in the room they had Dave Landry, Kevin Haggerty, Larry Conners, among other great traders in the room, but some of them have broken out on their own now), Millenium, Alan Farley, there's more but I've forgotten a lot of them, ZStock Pro has some good ideas, Robert McHugh and Marty Chenard are kind of special cases, they both provide excellent "analysis", but they are conservative, VERY conservative, so you won't get many recommendations out of them, and they don't DO stocks for the most part, but the service is cheap on a yearly basis.
I've left a lot of them out, obviously, but they are all pretty much the same, as there's only so many stocks and ETF's in the Universe, so how hard is it, when you have a few dozen people working for you, to find stocks or ETF's that are "moving", and relay that to your customers?? My problem, and it took me a while to figure me out, is that I don't like to get TO MANY ideas, IE they throw a shit pile of ideas at you with 15 minutes to go before the open, I much prefer a couple of ideas the night BEFORE, that I can concentrate on after the open, or in the premarket, as I get pretty "centric" when it comes to concentrating. If you are looking for day trading or swing trading education, my mentor was Toni Hansen (as was Ivica's), but I don't know if she has a service any more, Pristine and DTI are EXPENSIVE, but well worth the education if that's what you are into, plus you can earn while you learn.
Sites I have NOT been a member of, but I know the people and I also may have been in the rooms on trials, include ETF Prophet (Any thing with BZ involved with has to be good), Cobra, Stock Bee, Fallon, Mike Paulenoff, Harry Boxer (he's going to stop his "free" stuff this year, sigh), Sam Collins, Andrew Crowder, Master the Gap, EWI on their short term service, sigh, just to many to mention, I mention some of the others off and on during the year.

2012-02-04T06:01:00.000-07:00

Two LadiesTalking after their passing!
1st woman:    Hi! Wanda.

2nd woman:   Hi! Nancy. How'd you die?

1st woman:    I froze to death..

2nd woman:   How horrible!

1st woman:    It wasn't so bad.... After I quit shaking from the cold, I began to get warm & sleepy, and finally died a peaceful death. What about you?

2nd woman:   I died of a massive heart attack. I suspected that my husband was cheating, so I came home early to catch him in the act.   But instead, I found him all by himself in the den watching TV.

1st woman:    So, what happened?

2nd woman:   I was so sure there was another woman there somewhere that I started running all over the house looking. I ran up into the attic and searched, and down into the basement. Then I went through every closet and checked under all the beds. I kept this up until I had looked everywhere, and finally I became so exhausted that I just keeled over with a heart attack and died.

1st woman:   Too bad you didn't look in the freezer---we'd both still be alive.

2012-02-03T06:25:00.002-07:00

Stock pick for 02/03/2012

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2012-02-02T05:47:00.003-07:00

Stock pick for 02/02/2012

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What Happened in the Year of Your Birth

2012-02-01T00:43:00.009-07:00

Is it a double top in the NasDogs????????? FINALLY!!!??
The PSAR is saying it is, as it put it's first sell signal on them since the first of the year, plus we're getting big divergences in the RSI and CCI, PLUS, the top DOG of the bunch, the single most over valued RETAIL stock in the history of the markets, AMZN, finally had it's 100+ P/E catch up with it last night, as it was down 9% after reporting, and I gag when I say this word, EARNINGS, so maybe they start the parade.
I've seen this before of course, they meece, they go down in the after hours, and then they end up higher the next day, sigh, wad ever, go for it, I'll be real happy for you.

Speaking of the, "DOGS", I, LOVE, this pattern, I don't know what in the hell this thing is, but I definitely like the pull back, an "Equal Move" targets this thing to $25. Nothing goes in a straight line of course (or doooooes it!!!), but your short term stop is VERY obvious, as I wouldn't be sticking around under Monday's low, as you just neeeeeeeeeever know what those obnoxious market makers will do with some thing like this, like, a SHAKE OUT! I picked this up over at "The Chart Swing Trader", over on the links on the right side, nice pick up there! He's got a couple of other nice looking ones as well, like PSS, TNDM and YNDX, although, even though the chart might look, "nice", I don't, "DO", Chinese things.
A few more I like are, LLL, FRX, and WHR (which, unfortunately, is NOW a Chinese thing).
I should mention that in running my scans for those stocks, in the S and P 500 there were 157 stocks that had "Key Reversals Down" yesterday, that's where you open higher, and then close lower, I consider that to be a LOT of them, wad ever, it probably don't mean diddly squat.
Also, and even more amazing, is that in those 500 stocks there was 5, count'em, FIVE, stocks with an RSI 8 that were UNDER 20, hahahahahaha, now, that's what you call just slightly over bought, BUTT, we can stay over bought for LOOOOOONG periods of time, as all the LOOOOOVE can go on for awhile.
Just as amazing, was that on an RSI 2, VERY short term, on THREE stocks were below 10, which is a very over sold condition, and they were some big outfits, COP, NSC and NOC. The problem, of course, is that with a very OVER bought market like this, should "IT" decide to correct, these stocks will be the first to get even MORE over sold.

2012-02-01T00:02:00.001-07:00

The life of one of the 72 Virgins.

2012-01-30T07:14:00.002-07:00

I haven't been mentioning any Intraday or premarket "stuff", because, frankly, it hasn't mattered, "Investor's" have been defying logic by buying every gap down since the start of the year, as shown in the red circles.
But this morning may be different, we are gapping down below the main trend line that has been in place since the start of the year, so that's the first major break down, we are currently BELOW the lows of last week, and the week before, effectively taking out the last two weeks, so we could have support for the "dip" buyers after the open, BUTT, if NOT, we have an Air Pocket, or VOID, waiting under us, in the green box, that could provide NO support down to the first gap fill at $129. If we are simply going to have the typical two wave "corrective" wave set up, we would get a measured, or "Equal Move", which targets about $129.75, but I hardly think we go down there without just completing the gap fill at $129. The next gap fill after that is the close of last year, but, of course, we aren't allowed to talk about stuff like that, I could be labeled a terrorist, hahahahahahaha!!
Wad ever, good luck to you out in La La Land this week.

Stock pick for 01/30/2012

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Monday Morning Outlook: Strength in Tech Could Force Shorts to Cover

The Baltic Dry index has just been, well, breath taking!! The index is crashing of course, because, well, I guess that's what it does during a WORLD WIDE ECONOMIC BOOM, like the Bulls say we have going on right now, as I guess they think it goes DOWN during economic boom times and goes UP during economic depressions, wad ever.
Being a shipping stock lover, AT TIMES, I find it interesting that GNK and DSX are NOT crashing with it, they are at low levels, yea, they are, but they haven't been dumping with the Index.

The total number of stocks above their 200 DMA is interesting for a couple of reasons, number one is that even though the shorter term MA's, like the 20 and 50 DMA's, are in over bought territory, and possibly signaling a short term pull back (like, we'll ever get a pull back again in my life time, hahahaha.......HAH!), the 200 DMA is a LOOOOOOONG way from being over bought, and leaves a lot of room for the "markets" to move higher, should the powers that be decide to take us there.

The other item, that's obvious to me, is that this thing works best with divergences at the HIGHS, as shown by the HUGE divergence we got at the all time highs in October of 2007', and again with the short term highs we got in both 2010 and 2011, so IMHO, this thing will only be worth following if, or WHEN, we start going after the highs of last year in the "markets". And also, as with any divergence in an "indicator", we have to get a new high, then a PULL BACK, and then a NEW HIGH, before I will start sitting up in my chair, for example the SPY double tops last years highs, then get's that weird thing call a PULL BACK, then goes back up and makes a slight NEW HIGH, while the 200 DMA's are going in the opposite direction, that would definitely, NOT, be a good thing.

Right now we are not CLOSE to that type of situation.

One note on the Weekly Outlook article from Schaeffer's, on page two I get the impression that Rocky White is trying to make a case for BUYING right now, BECAUSE, the DOW is UP in January, and THUS, we will be HIGHER in February......................HAH! Hysterically, eeeeerrrrrr, aaahhhhh, HISTORICALLY, February is one of, if not THE, WORST, month of the year for stock market returns, and when you look at his own tables, when January is higher February averages a FAAAAAANTAASTIC .57% return, and when the DOW has been up 3.5% or more, like it is now, it actually DROPS to .26%, I mean................ hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.................HAH!

PERSONALLY, I, HARDLY, think that the prospect of going ALL IN, in order to, POSSIBLY, get a .26% return next month, is worth the RISK, but, HEY, THAT'S JUST ME!!!

I think I'd rather wait, and, HOPE, for a pull back into Mid March (HAH! GOOD LUCK WITH THAT ONE!!!), when Da Boyz start their next asinine pump into the April earnings season, as hope always springs eternal for those Pollyanna Bulls.

On a little side note, I personally like both of Ivica's ideas on those charts at the top.